Pisa
Model pick
65%
Fair odds 1.54Bookmakers 59%
Sudtirol
14%
Fair odds 7.17Bookmakers 17%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Pisa | Draw | Sudtirol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| Elo model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 59% | 23% | 17% |
| Best price on offer | 1.58 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Pisa
Pisa are rated 53 points above Sudtirol (1380 to 1327), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Pisa
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Pisa's chance of winning and takes the same from Sudtirol's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Pisa
Expected goals 2.0 to 0.8. Pisa score 1.1 a match against an average side (2nd in Serie B); Sudtirol concede 1.7 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Pisa
Pisa LDDWW, gained 15 rating points; Sudtirol DLDLD, lost 28 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Sudtirol
Bookmakers rate Sudtirol higher than the model does: Pisa 59% against the model's 65%, Sudtirol 17% against 14%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Pisa won 2, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
PisaSudtirolPisa
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
15 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/25
10/28
11/01
Sudtirol
2/10 over 2.5
11 scored
10 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 53%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Pisa | Draw | Sudtirol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pisa | 40%2.50 | 4%28.25 | 1%— |
| Level | 22%4.56 | 13%7.94 | 6%17.57 |
| Sudtirol | 3%30.12 | 4%24.10 | 8%12.80 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Pisa wins2Sudtirol wins- D Pisa vs Sudtirol 3-3
- W Sudtirol vs Pisa 1-2
- D Pisa vs Sudtirol 2-2
- W Sudtirol vs Pisa 1-2
- L Pisa vs Sudtirol 0-1
- L Sudtirol vs Pisa 2-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Pisa's side.