Aston Villa
Model pick
64%
Fair odds 1.55
Sunderland
14%
Fair odds 7.04
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Aston Villa | Draw | Sunderland | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 64% | 21% | 14% |
| Elo model | 67% | 22% | 11% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Aston Villa
Aston Villa are rated 152 points above Sunderland (1651 to 1499), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Aston Villa
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Aston Villa's chance of winning and takes the same from Sunderland's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Aston Villa
Expected goals 2.0 to 0.8. Aston Villa score 1.8 a match against an average side (5th in Premier League); Sunderland concede 1.1 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Aston Villa
Aston Villa LDWWW, gained 7 rating points; Sunderland LLDDL, lost 29 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Aston VillaSunderlandAston Villa
8/10 over 2.5
22 scored
14 conceded
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
11/03
Sunderland
3/10 over 2.5
8 scored
18 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Aston Villa | Draw | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 33%3.05 | 2%45.45 | 0%— |
| Level | 26%3.78 | 12%8.14 | 4%23.26 |
| Sunderland | 6%17.70 | 6%16.58 | 10%10.12 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Aston Villa wins0Sunderland wins- W Aston Villa vs Sunderland 4-3
- D Sunderland vs Aston Villa 1-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Aston Villa's side.