Sutton
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.70
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hornchurch | Draw | Sutton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Hornchurch and Sutton are rated almost level (1029 and 1036).
-
Home advantage Favours Hornchurch
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Hornchurch's chance of winning and takes the same from Sutton's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.4. Hornchurch score 0.5 a match against an average side (21st in National League); Sutton concede 3.0 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Sutton
Hornchurch LLLWL, lost 22 rating points; Sutton WWLLD, gained 21 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
HornchurchSutton
09/12
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/27
10/30
Sutton
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
15 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/26
10/09
10/24
10/28
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hornchurch | Draw | Sutton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hornchurch | 23%4.31 | 6%16.50 | 3%35.46 |
| Level | 12%8.47 | 16%6.45 | 15%6.78 |
| Sutton | 2%61.35 | 4%23.58 | 20%5.01 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.