Birmingham
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.95Bookmakers 51%
Swansea
23%
Fair odds 4.31Bookmakers 23%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Birmingham | Draw | Swansea | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 25% | 23% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 24% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Best price on offer | 1.87 | 3.75 | 4.33 |
Team news
- James Beadle Out
- August Priske Doubtful
Dael Fry and Paik Seung-ho are close to returning and are not counted as absences; Fry has been training for several days and Paik is back training fully. Ryan Allsop is the likely replacement in goal if Beadle misses out.
- Stephen Eustaquio Out
- Melker Widell Out
- Cameron Burgess Out
Stephen Welsh passed a scan after a knee knock at Portsmouth and is being assessed for Saturday; Moussa Yeo and Jisung Eom are back in contention. Jenson Seelt is the likely centre-back partner for Cabango if Welsh is unavailable.
Allowing for this news: Birmingham 50%, draw 26%, Swansea 24% (xG 1.64 – 1.08). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: the72.co.uk, hayters.com, sports.yahoo.com, thehardtackle.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Birmingham
Birmingham are rated 27 points above Swansea (1524 to 1498), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Birmingham
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Birmingham's chance of winning and takes the same from Swansea's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Birmingham
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.1. Birmingham score 1.4 a match against an average side (4th in Championship); Swansea concede 1.2 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Birmingham
Birmingham WWLWW, gained 33 rating points; Swansea LWLLW, lost 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Birmingham 51%, Swansea 23%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Birmingham
Birmingham won 3, drew 5 and lost 0 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BirminghamSwanseaBirmingham
8/10 over 2.5
21 scored
9 conceded
09/06
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Swansea
7/10 over 2.5
14 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 51%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Birmingham | Draw | Swansea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 32%3.13 | 4%22.52 | 1%79.37 |
| Level | 17%5.80 | 15%6.66 | 8%11.86 |
| Swansea | 3%36.63 | 5%19.96 | 14%7.16 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Birmingham wins0Swansea wins- D Swansea vs Birmingham 1-1
- W Birmingham vs Swansea 1-0
- D Birmingham vs Swansea 2-2
- D Swansea vs Birmingham 1-1
- W Swansea vs Birmingham 3-4
- D Birmingham vs Swansea 2-2
- D Swansea vs Birmingham 0-0
- W Birmingham vs Swansea 2-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Birmingham's side.