Middlesbrough
Model pick
58%
Fair odds 1.74
Swansea
20%
Fair odds 5.10
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Middlesbrough | Draw | Swansea | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 58% | 23% | 20% |
| Elo model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough are rated 49 points above Swansea (1546 to 1498), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Middlesbrough
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Middlesbrough's chance of winning and takes the same from Swansea's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Middlesbrough
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.1. Middlesbrough score 1.6 a match against an average side (2nd in Championship); Swansea concede 1.2 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough LWWDW, gained 8 rating points; Swansea LWLLW, lost 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough won 7, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MiddlesbroughSwanseaMiddlesbrough
7/10 over 2.5
23 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/23
10/31
11/04
Swansea
7/10 over 2.5
14 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Middlesbrough | Draw | Swansea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 37%2.67 | 5%21.10 | 1%67.57 |
| Level | 18%5.61 | 13%7.75 | 8%12.76 |
| Swansea | 3%35.34 | 4%23.31 | 11%9.36 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
7Middlesbrough wins1Swansea wins- D Swansea vs Middlesbrough 2-2
- W Middlesbrough vs Swansea 1-0
- L Swansea vs Middlesbrough 1-0
- W Middlesbrough vs Swansea 1-0
- W Middlesbrough vs Swansea 2-0
- W Swansea vs Middlesbrough 1-2
- W Swansea vs Middlesbrough 1-3
- W Middlesbrough vs Swansea 2-1
- D Swansea vs Middlesbrough 1-1
- W Middlesbrough vs Swansea 1-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Middlesbrough's side.