Milton Keynes Dons
Model pick
67%
Fair odds 1.49
Swindon
14%
Fair odds 7.39
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Milton Keynes Dons | Draw | Swindon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 67% | 20% | 14% |
| Elo model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
Team news
- Sam Silvera Out
Sports Mole expects Gethin Jones to replace Silvera; Paul Warne has hinted at a handful of changes for the FA Cup tie, and Aaron Collins is in form with 16 goals this season.
No absences reported
No recent specific injury or suspension reports found for Swindon. Sports Mole expects Hungbo to start after his goal against Rotherham, with James Ball likely to drop to the bench (not an absence). Ian Holloway has reportedly faced defensive injury problems, but I could not confirm any named player as out or doubtful.
Allowing for this news: Milton Keynes Dons 63%, draw 21%, Swindon 17% (xG 2.14 – 1.02). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, mkdons.com, miltonkeynes.co.uk, uk.sports.yahoo.com
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons are rated 83 points above Swindon (1306 to 1222), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Milton Keynes Dons
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Milton Keynes Dons's chance of winning and takes the same from Swindon's.
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Attack against defence Favours Milton Keynes Dons
Expected goals 2.2 to 0.9. Milton Keynes Dons score 0.9 a match against an average side (13th in League One); Swindon concede 2.5 (22nd best defence in League Two).
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Last 5 matches Favours Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons WWWLW, gained 36 rating points; Swindon WDWDL, gained 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
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Past meetings Favours Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons won 5, drew 1 and lost 0 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Milton Keynes DonsSwindonMilton Keynes Dons
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
17 conceded
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/17
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Swindon
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
12 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 4-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Milton Keynes Dons | Draw | Swindon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons | 39%2.59 | 3%35.09 | 1%— |
| Level | 24%4.18 | 11%9.14 | 5%21.14 |
| Swindon | 5%20.58 | 5%20.12 | 8%11.78 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Milton Keynes Dons wins0Swindon wins- W Swindon vs Milton Keynes Dons 1-2
- W Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon 1-0
- D Swindon vs Milton Keynes Dons 0-0
- W Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon 3-1
- W Swindon vs Milton Keynes Dons 1-2
- W Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon 3-2
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Milton Keynes Dons's side.