Newport County
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.86
Swindon
22%
Fair odds 4.60
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Newport County | Draw | Swindon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 25% | 22% |
| Elo model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Swindon
Swindon are rated 58 points above Newport County (1222 to 1164), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Newport County
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Newport County's chance of winning and takes the same from Swindon's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Newport County
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.0. Newport County score 0.7 a match against an average side (12th in League Two); Swindon concede 2.5 (22nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Newport County WLDDW, gained 23 rating points; Swindon WDWDL, gained 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Swindon
Newport County won 3, drew 0 and lost 7 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Newport CountySwindonNewport County
3/10 over 2.5
11 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/30
Swindon
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
12 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Newport County | Draw | Swindon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 29%3.44 | 3%29.15 | 1%— |
| Level | 21%4.76 | 14%7.01 | 7%13.66 |
| Swindon | 4%24.39 | 6%16.72 | 14%7.18 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Newport County wins7Swindon wins- L Swindon vs Newport County 2-0
- L Newport County vs Swindon 0-1
- L Newport County vs Swindon 1-2
- L Swindon vs Newport County 4-0
- W Newport County vs Swindon 2-1
- L Swindon vs Newport County 2-0
- W Newport County vs Swindon 2-1
- L Swindon vs Newport County 1-0
- W Swindon vs Newport County 0-1
- L Newport County vs Swindon 1-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Newport County's side.