Carlisle
Model pick
65%
Fair odds 1.54
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Carlisle | Draw | Tamworth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| Elo model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Carlisle
Carlisle are rated 134 points above Tamworth (1169 to 1035), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Carlisle
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Carlisle's chance of winning and takes the same from Tamworth's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Carlisle
Expected goals 2.4 to 1.1. Carlisle score 0.7 a match against an average side (2nd in National League); Tamworth concede 3.2 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Carlisle
Carlisle WWWDW, gained 33 rating points; Tamworth LWLWW, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
CarlisleTamworthCarlisle
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
13 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/24
10/28
10/31
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/30
10/03
10/10
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Carlisle | Draw | Tamworth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | 45%2.23 | 5%21.60 | 2%64.94 |
| Level | 18%5.70 | 10%9.99 | 6%15.80 |
| Tamworth | 3%31.95 | 4%26.74 | 8%12.15 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Carlisle wins- L Tamworth vs Carlisle 2-1
- W Carlisle vs Tamworth 2-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Carlisle's side.