Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hornchurch | Draw | Tamworth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Elo model | 45% | 28% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Hornchurch and Tamworth are rated almost level (1029 and 1035).
-
Home advantage Favours Hornchurch
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Hornchurch's chance of winning and takes the same from Tamworth's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.6. Hornchurch score 0.5 a match against an average side (21st in National League); Tamworth concede 3.2 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Tamworth
Hornchurch LLLWL, lost 22 rating points; Tamworth LWLWW, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
HornchurchTamworth
09/12
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/27
10/30
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/30
10/03
10/10
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hornchurch | Draw | Tamworth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hornchurch | 23%4.41 | 6%15.53 | 4%26.88 |
| Level | 11%9.21 | 13%7.52 | 16%6.39 |
| Tamworth | 2%56.82 | 4%23.98 | 21%4.66 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.