For Sittard
Model pick
52%
Fair odds 1.94Bookmakers 46%
Telstar
25%
Fair odds 3.98Bookmakers 29%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| For Sittard | Draw | Telstar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 46% | 26% | 29% |
| Best price on offer | 2.10 | 3.75 | 3.50 |
Team news
- Rodrigo Guth Doubtful
- Lequincio Zeefuik Doubtful
- Ole Romeny Out
Sportsmole's preview suggests Ivan Marquez and Kristoffer Peterson could come into the starting XI; older injury lists also mention Sven Simons and Yassin Oukili but no recent report confirms them as absent.
- Gerald Alders Doubtful
- Rui Mendes Out
Patrick Brouwer was absent last time but is reported likely to return; sources conflict on Alders (WhoScored lists him out, Sportsmole doubtful).
Allowing for this news: For Sittard 50%, draw 24%, Telstar 26% (xG 1.80 – 1.24). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, whoscored.com, blessuresenschorsingen.nl, fortunasittard.nl
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours For Sittard
For Sittard are rated 15 points above Telstar (1473 to 1458), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours For Sittard
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to For Sittard's chance of winning and takes the same from Telstar's.
-
Attack against defence Favours For Sittard
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.3. For Sittard score 1.2 a match against an average side (12th in Eredivisie); Telstar concede 1.7 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours For Sittard
For Sittard DWDDW, gained 23 rating points; Telstar WLLDL, lost 5 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Telstar
Bookmakers rate Telstar higher than the model does: For Sittard 46% against the model's 52%, Telstar 29% against 25%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
For SittardTelstarFor Sittard
5/10 over 2.5
16 scored
16 conceded
08/15
08/22
08/28
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/31
Telstar
7/10 over 2.5
14 scored
22 conceded
08/14
08/30
09/06
09/09
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/23
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 59%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | For Sittard | Draw | Telstar |
|---|---|---|---|
| For Sittard | 33%3.07 | 5%20.08 | 2%53.48 |
| Level | 16%6.13 | 12%8.01 | 9%10.95 |
| Telstar | 3%31.75 | 5%20.20 | 15%6.89 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1For Sittard wins1Telstar wins- L For Sittard vs Telstar 1-4
- W Telstar vs For Sittard 1-3
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from For Sittard's side.