Dalian Yingbo
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.10Bookmakers 68%
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
25%
Fair odds 3.94Bookmakers 12%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Dalian Yingbo: 48% here, 68% with bookmakers; Tianjin Jinmen Tiger: 25% here, 12% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Dalian Yingbo | Draw | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Elo model | 45% | 27% | 27% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 68% | 20% | 12% |
| Best price on offer | 1.38 | 4.80 | 8.50 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Dalian Yingbo and Tianjin Jinmen Tiger are rated almost level (1405 and 1408).
-
Home advantage Favours Dalian Yingbo
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Dalian Yingbo's chance of winning and takes the same from Tianjin Jinmen Tiger's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Dalian Yingbo
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.1. Dalian Yingbo score 1.1 a match against an average side (7th in Chinese Super League); Tianjin Jinmen Tiger concede 1.4 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Dalian Yingbo
Dalian Yingbo WWWWD, gained 43 rating points; Tianjin Jinmen Tiger LWWWW, gained 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Dalian Yingbo
Bookmakers rate Dalian Yingbo higher than the model does: Dalian Yingbo 68% against the model's 48%, Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 12% against 25%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
Dalian Yingbo won 0, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 3 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Dalian YingboTianjin Jinmen TigerDalian Yingbo
4/10 over 2.5
16 scored
8 conceded
07/31
08/08
08/15
08/19
08/23
08/28
09/05
10/11
10/17
10/24
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
5/10 over 2.5
13 scored
13 conceded
08/01
08/09
08/15
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/12
10/10
10/16
10/24
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Dalian Yingbo | Draw | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dalian Yingbo | 31%3.27 | 4%25.06 | 1%— |
| Level | 15%6.57 | 16%6.09 | 8%13.33 |
| Tianjin Jinmen Tiger | 2%41.84 | 6%18.12 | 17%5.73 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Dalian Yingbo wins2Tianjin Jinmen Tiger wins- L Tianjin Jinmen Tiger vs Dalian Yingbo 1-0
- L Tianjin Jinmen Tiger vs Dalian Yingbo 2-0
- D Dalian Yingbo vs Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 1-1
3 meetings in the data. Results shown from Dalian Yingbo's side.