Pachuca
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.16
Toluca
28%
Fair odds 3.52
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Pachuca | Draw | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 46% | 25% | 28% |
| Elo model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Toluca
Toluca are rated 51 points above Pachuca (1467 to 1416), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Pachuca
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Pachuca's chance of winning and takes the same from Toluca's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Pachuca
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.2. Pachuca score 1.0 a match against an average side (7th in Liga MX); Toluca concede 1.6 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Pachuca
Pachuca WWLLD, barely moved; Toluca DDDDL, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Pachuca won 6, drew 3 and lost 5 of the last 14 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
PachucaTolucaPachuca
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
12 conceded
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/21
10/12
10/19
10/22
10/26
10/31
Toluca
7/10 over 2.5
23 scored
17 conceded
08/31
09/13
09/16
09/26
10/10
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Pachuca | Draw | Toluca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pachuca | 29%3.45 | 5%20.53 | 2%59.17 |
| Level | 15%6.61 | 14%7.03 | 10%10.25 |
| Toluca | 3%36.90 | 5%19.01 | 17%5.75 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Pachuca wins5Toluca wins- W Pachuca vs Toluca 2-0
- W Toluca vs Pachuca 0-1
- D Pachuca vs Toluca 1-1
- D Toluca vs Pachuca 2-2
- L Toluca vs Pachuca 3-2
- D Pachuca vs Toluca 2-2
- L Pachuca vs Toluca 2-3
- L Toluca vs Pachuca 5-0
- L Pachuca vs Toluca 1-2
- W Pachuca vs Toluca 3-1
14 meetings in the data. Results shown from Pachuca's side.