Napoli
Model pick
57%
Fair odds 1.75
Torino
20%
Fair odds 5.09
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Napoli | Draw | Torino | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Elo model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Napoli
Napoli are rated 96 points above Torino (1574 to 1479), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Napoli
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Napoli's chance of winning and takes the same from Torino's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Napoli
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.0. Napoli score 1.4 a match against an average side (7th in Serie A); Torino concede 1.3 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Napoli LLWDW, barely moved; Torino LLWWW, gained 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Napoli
Napoli won 7, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
NapoliTorinoNapoli
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
18 conceded
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/28
11/01
11/04
Torino
7/10 over 2.5
14 scored
16 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/05
09/14
09/19
10/12
10/19
10/23
10/27
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Napoli | Draw | Torino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 38%2.63 | 5%18.35 | 2%52.63 |
| Level | 17%5.77 | 13%7.51 | 9%11.05 |
| Torino | 2%44.44 | 4%28.33 | 9%10.94 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
7Napoli wins2Torino wins- W Napoli vs Torino 2-1
- L Torino vs Napoli 1-0
- W Napoli vs Torino 2-0
- W Torino vs Napoli 0-1
- D Napoli vs Torino 1-1
- L Torino vs Napoli 3-0
- W Torino vs Napoli 0-4
- W Napoli vs Torino 3-1
- W Torino vs Napoli 0-1
- W Napoli vs Torino 1-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Napoli's side.