Philadelphia Union
Model pick
69%
Fair odds 1.45Bookmakers 65%
Toronto FC
13%
Fair odds 7.66Bookmakers 16%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Philadelphia Union | Draw | Toronto FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Elo model | 63% | 24% | 14% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| Best price on offer | 1.46 | 5.25 | 6.50 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union are rated 120 points above Toronto FC (1423 to 1302), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Philadelphia Union
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Philadelphia Union's chance of winning and takes the same from Toronto FC's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Philadelphia Union
Expected goals 2.5 to 1.0. Philadelphia Union score 1.1 a match against an average side (4th in MLS); Toronto FC concede 2.3 (23rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Philadelphia Union LDLDW, lost 5 rating points; Toronto FC LWLWD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Toronto FC
Bookmakers rate Toronto FC higher than the model does: Philadelphia Union 65% against the model's 69%, Toronto FC 16% against 13%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Philadelphia Union won 4, drew 4 and lost 3 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Philadelphia UnionToronto FCPhiladelphia Union
8/10 over 2.5
26 scored
12 conceded
09/10
09/14
09/20
09/27
10/11
10/15
10/17
10/25
10/29
10/31
Toronto FC
8/10 over 2.5
15 scored
21 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/10
10/15
10/24
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 1-0
- 4-1
- 4-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Philadelphia Union | Draw | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union | 34%2.98 | 2%59.52 | 0%— |
| Level | 27%3.66 | 9%11.44 | 3%32.36 |
| Toronto FC | 9%11.53 | 7%14.84 | 10%10.06 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Philadelphia Union wins3Toronto FC wins- D Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union 3-3
- D Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC 1-1
- W Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union 1-2
- L Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union 2-1
- D Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC 0-0
- L Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union 3-1
- W Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC 4-2
- W Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC 4-0
- L Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union 2-1
- D Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union 2-2
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from Philadelphia Union's side.