Lens
36%
Fair odds 2.78
Toulouse
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.61
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Lens | Draw | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Elo model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Lens
Lens are rated 52 points above Toulouse (1552 to 1500), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Lens
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Lens's chance of winning and takes the same from Toulouse's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.5. Lens score 1.2 a match against an average side (10th in Ligue 1); Toulouse concede 1.2 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Toulouse
Lens LLWLW, lost 24 rating points; Toulouse LDWDW, gained 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Lens
Lens won 6, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
LensToulouseLens
8/10 over 2.5
14 scored
24 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/18
10/09
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/30
11/04
Toulouse
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
13 conceded
05/17
08/22
08/29
09/03
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/16
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Lens | Draw | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 26%3.89 | 8%12.55 | 5%20.75 |
| Level | 10%10.41 | 14%7.24 | 18%5.71 |
| Toulouse | 1%93.46 | 3%33.90 | 17%6.05 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Lens wins1Toulouse wins- W Lens vs Toulouse 3-2
- W Toulouse vs Lens 0-3
- D Toulouse vs Lens 1-1
- L Lens vs Toulouse 0-1
- W Toulouse vs Lens 0-2
- W Lens vs Toulouse 2-1
- W Toulouse vs Lens 0-1
- W Lens vs Toulouse 3-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Lens's side.