Alanyaspor
25%
Fair odds 4.01Bookmakers 20%
Trabzonspor
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.98Bookmakers 56%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Alanyaspor | Draw | Trabzonspor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Elo model | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 20% | 24% | 56% |
| Best price on offer | 5.00 | 4.00 | 1.67 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor are rated 154 points above Alanyaspor (1628 to 1474), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Alanyaspor
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Alanyaspor's chance of winning and takes the same from Trabzonspor's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Trabzonspor
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.8. Alanyaspor score 1.1 a match against an average side (17th in Süper Lig); Trabzonspor concede 1.1 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Trabzonspor
Alanyaspor LLLDW, lost 25 rating points; Trabzonspor LWWWW, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Alanyaspor
Trabzonspor will have had 3 days' rest, Alanyaspor 6. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Trabzonspor
Bookmakers rate Trabzonspor higher than the model does: Alanyaspor 20% against the model's 25%, Trabzonspor 56% against 51%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Alanyaspor won 3, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AlanyasporTrabzonsporAlanyaspor
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
16 conceded
08/15
08/23
08/30
09/07
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/23
11/02
Trabzonspor
5/10 over 2.5
26 scored
7 conceded
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/19
10/22
10/26
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 56%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Alanyaspor | Draw | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | 16%6.11 | 6%15.77 | 4%23.47 |
| Level | 8%12.63 | 14%7.38 | 19%5.16 |
| Trabzonspor | 1%90.91 | 4%27.55 | 27%3.64 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Alanyaspor wins4Trabzonspor wins- D Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor 1-1
- D Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor 1-1
- L Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor 4-3
- W Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor 2-1
- W Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor 3-1
- L Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor 1-0
- L Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor 5-1
- W Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor 5-0
- L Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor 0-4
- D Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor 1-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Alanyaspor's side.