CSKA Sofia
16%
Fair odds 6.41
Trabzonspor
Model pick
64%
Fair odds 1.55
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| CSKA Sofia | Draw | Trabzonspor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 16% | 20% | 64% |
| Elo model | 11% | 22% | 66% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor are rated 279 points above CSKA Sofia (1628 to 1349), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours CSKA Sofia
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to CSKA Sofia's chance of winning and takes the same from Trabzonspor's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Trabzonspor
Expected goals 1.0 to 2.2. CSKA Sofia score 0.9 a match against an average side; Trabzonspor concede 1.1 (2nd best defence in Süper Lig).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
CSKA Sofia LDLLL, gained 25 rating points; Trabzonspor LWWWW, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
CSKA SofiaTrabzonsporCSKA Sofia
5/9 over 2.5
7 scored
19 conceded
09/16
09/30
11/25
12/09
10/15
10/22
11/05
Trabzonspor
5/10 over 2.5
26 scored
7 conceded
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/19
10/22
10/26
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 0-3
- 2-2
- 2-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | CSKA Sofia | Draw | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 12%8.14 | 8%13.16 | 8%11.99 |
| Level | 3%29.94 | 10%10.10 | 26%3.82 |
| Trabzonspor | 0%— | 2%59.17 | 30%3.30 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.