Barnet
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.77
Tranmere
20%
Fair odds 4.91
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Barnet | Draw | Tranmere | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 56% | 23% | 20% |
| Elo model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
Team news
- Kabongo Tshimanga Out
Tshimanga is League Two's leading scorer (10 goals in 13 apps) and played 80 minutes at Crewe on 1 Nov while carrying the knee problem. No rotation reports found.
No absences reported
No recent Tranmere injury or team news found. A Tranmere injury page lists no injured players, but it is undated and not confirmed as current. Manager Darrell Clarke's 5 Nov preview did not mention absences in the text retrieved.
Allowing for this news: Barnet 55%, draw 24%, Tranmere 21% (xG 1.82 – 1.06). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sports.yahoo.com, squawka.com, tranmererovers.co.uk
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Barnet
Barnet are rated 128 points above Tranmere (1286 to 1158), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Barnet
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Barnet's chance of winning and takes the same from Tranmere's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Barnet
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.1. Barnet score 0.8 a match against an average side (2nd in League Two); Tranmere concede 2.2 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Tranmere
Barnet DWDLW, lost 9 rating points; Tranmere WDWLD, gained 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Barnet
Barnet won 3, drew 0 and lost 0 of the last 3 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BarnetTranmereBarnet
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
14 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Tranmere
3/10 over 2.5
12 scored
12 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Barnet | Draw | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet | 33%3.08 | 4%25.51 | 1%84.75 |
| Level | 21%4.87 | 13%7.57 | 8%13.16 |
| Tranmere | 4%26.18 | 5%19.19 | 12%8.33 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Barnet wins0Tranmere wins- W Tranmere vs Barnet 1-2
- W Barnet vs Tranmere 1-0
- W Tranmere vs Barnet 0-2
3 meetings in the data. Results shown from Barnet's side.