Fleetwood Town
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 2.00
Tranmere
24%
Fair odds 4.15
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Fleetwood Town | Draw | Tranmere | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Elo model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town are rated 37 points above Tranmere (1195 to 1158), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Fleetwood Town
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Fleetwood Town's chance of winning and takes the same from Tranmere's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Fleetwood Town
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.1. Fleetwood Town score 0.7 a match against an average side (8th in League Two); Tranmere concede 2.2 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Fleetwood Town WLLWD, barely moved; Tranmere WDWLD, gained 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Fleetwood Town won 0, drew 3 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Fleetwood TownTranmereFleetwood Town
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Tranmere
3/10 over 2.5
12 scored
12 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Fleetwood Town | Draw | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town | 29%3.44 | 4%22.27 | 1%68.97 |
| Level | 19%5.36 | 15%6.50 | 10%10.33 |
| Tranmere | 3%34.60 | 5%20.28 | 13%7.42 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Fleetwood Town wins1Tranmere wins- D Fleetwood Town vs Tranmere 0-0
- L Tranmere vs Fleetwood Town 1-0
- D Fleetwood Town vs Tranmere 0-0
- D Tranmere vs Fleetwood Town 0-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Fleetwood Town's side.