Paris SG
Model pick
93%
Fair odds 1.08Bookmakers 85%
Troyes
2%
Fair odds 51.81Bookmakers 5%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Paris SG | Draw | Troyes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 93% | 5% | 2% |
| Elo model | 85% | 12% | 2% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 85% | 10% | 5% |
| Best price on offer | 1.12 | 11.00 | 23.00 |
Team news
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Out
- Ousmane Dembélé Out
- Marquinhos Out
- Nuno Mendes Out
- Achraf Hakimi Out
- Maghnes Akliouche Out
- Alessandro Longoni Doubtful
PSG have no new injury concerns beyond Akliouche per the latest reports; Luis Enrique's press conference is the main remaining source of confirmation.
- Yacouba Koné Out
- Timothé Nkada Doubtful
Anis Ouzenadji reportedly trained normally and is expected to return, so he is not listed; some earlier reports still had him doubtful.
Allowing for this news: Paris SG 93%, draw 5%, Troyes 2% (xG 4.07 – 0.62). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: culturepsg.com, en.parisfans.fr, parisfans.fr, flashscore.com
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Paris SG
Paris SG are rated 348 points above Troyes (1760 to 1412), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Paris SG
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 3 points to Paris SG's chance of winning and takes the same from Troyes's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Paris SG
Expected goals 4.2 to 0.6. Paris SG score 2.9 a match against an average side (1st in Ligue 1); Troyes concede 1.5 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Paris SG
Paris SG WWWWW, gained 37 rating points; Troyes WDLLL, lost 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Troyes
Paris SG will have had 4 days' rest, Troyes 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Troyes
Bookmakers rate Troyes higher than the model does: Paris SG 85% against the model's 93%, Troyes 5% against 2%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Paris SG
Paris SG won 3, drew 1 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Paris SGTroyesParis SG
8/10 over 2.5
36 scored
9 conceded
09/09
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/26
10/30
11/03
Troyes
3/10 over 2.5
7 scored
17 conceded
05/09
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 75%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 4-0
- 3-0
- 5-0
- 2-0
- 4-1
- 3-1
- 6-0
- 5-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | |||||
| 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 7 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 10 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 9 | 5 | 2 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Paris SG | Draw | Troyes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris SG | 57%1.75 | 0%— | 0%— |
| Level | 28%3.51 | 2%40.49 | 1%— |
| Troyes | 8%13.23 | 2%50.00 | 1%69.93 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Paris SG wins0Troyes wins- W Troyes vs Paris SG 1-3
- W Paris SG vs Troyes 4-3
- D Paris SG vs Troyes 2-2
- W Troyes vs Paris SG 1-2
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Paris SG's side.