Freiburg
32%
Fair odds 3.11
Twente
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.40
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Freiburg | Draw | Twente | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Elo model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Twente
Twente are rated 55 points above Freiburg (1619 to 1564), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Freiburg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Freiburg's chance of winning and takes the same from Twente's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Twente
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.5. Freiburg score 1.5 a match against an average side (7th in Bundesliga); Twente concede 1.0 (1st best defence in Eredivisie).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Twente
Freiburg WWLLL, barely moved; Twente WWWWL, gained 30 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
FreiburgTwenteFreiburg
8/10 over 2.5
18 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Twente
5/10 over 2.5
27 scored
7 conceded
09/09
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Freiburg | Draw | Twente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg | 17%5.75 | 4%24.81 | 2%62.50 |
| Level | 13%7.90 | 15%6.75 | 12%8.45 |
| Twente | 3%37.59 | 6%15.70 | 29%3.49 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.