Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Csikszereda M. Ciuc | Draw | U. Cluj | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 15% | 21% | 64% |
| Elo model | 17% | 25% | 58% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 18% | 22% | 60% |
| Best price on offer | 5.70 | 4.35 | 1.54 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours U. Cluj
U. Cluj are rated 214 points above Csikszereda M. Ciuc (1502 to 1287), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Csikszereda M. Ciuc
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Csikszereda M. Ciuc's chance of winning and takes the same from U. Cluj's.
-
Attack against defence Favours U. Cluj
Expected goals 0.9 to 2.1. Csikszereda M. Ciuc score 0.7 a match against an average side (18th in Romanian Liga 1); U. Cluj concede 1.3 (3rd best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours U. Cluj
Csikszereda M. Ciuc LWDLL, barely moved; U. Cluj WWDLW, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Csikszereda M. Ciuc
Bookmakers rate Csikszereda M. Ciuc higher than the model does: Csikszereda M. Ciuc 18% against the model's 15%, U. Cluj 60% against 64%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Csikszereda M. CiucU. Cluj
08/29
09/11
10/11
10/16
10/30
08/22
09/07
09/14
10/08
10/12
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-3
- 1-3
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Csikszereda M. Ciuc | Draw | U. Cluj |
|---|---|---|---|
| Csikszereda M. Ciuc | 14%7.00 | 10%9.79 | 11%9.07 |
| Level | 1%96.15 | 10%10.35 | 28%3.52 |
| U. Cluj | 0%— | 0%— | 25%4.02 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
- L U. Cluj vs Csikszereda M. Ciuc 4-1
- W Csikszereda M. Ciuc vs U. Cluj 2-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Csikszereda M. Ciuc's side.