Bologna
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.79
Udinese
20%
Fair odds 4.98
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bologna | Draw | Udinese | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Elo model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bologna
Bologna are rated 95 points above Udinese (1541 to 1445), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Bologna
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Bologna's chance of winning and takes the same from Udinese's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bologna
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.0. Bologna score 1.2 a match against an average side (10th in Serie A); Udinese concede 1.4 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Bologna
Bologna WWWLW, gained 31 rating points; Udinese LDLLL, lost 41 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Bologna
Bologna won 4, drew 5 and lost 1 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BolognaUdineseBologna
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
13 conceded
08/24
08/31
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/28
10/31
Udinese
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
23 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/07
09/14
09/19
10/12
10/18
10/25
10/28
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bologna | Draw | Udinese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna | 33%3.05 | 4%24.88 | 1%87.72 |
| Level | 20%4.94 | 14%7.08 | 8%12.92 |
| Udinese | 3%29.76 | 5%20.12 | 12%8.59 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Bologna wins1Udinese wins- W Bologna vs Udinese 1-0
- W Udinese vs Bologna 0-3
- D Udinese vs Bologna 0-0
- D Bologna vs Udinese 1-1
- D Bologna vs Udinese 1-1
- L Udinese vs Bologna 3-0
- W Bologna vs Udinese 3-0
- W Udinese vs Bologna 1-2
- D Bologna vs Udinese 2-2
- D Udinese vs Bologna 1-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Bologna's side.