Venezia
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.39Bookmakers 41%
Udinese
32%
Fair odds 3.09Bookmakers 31%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Venezia | Draw | Udinese | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Elo model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Best price on offer | 2.30 | 3.50 | 3.20 |
Team news
- Bartol Franjic Out
- Marin Sverko Out
- Andrea Adorante Out
Thierry Correia (thigh) was named in the squad list on Nov 5 per Rotowire, though WhoScored still flags him as a late fitness test; excluded as available. Expected 3-5-2 with Stankovic in goal and Adams and Lauberbach up front.
- David Alaba Out
- Alessandro Zanoli Out
- Idrissa Gueye Out
- Oumar Solet Doubtful
- Vakoun Bayo Doubtful
Paolo Zanetti makes his Udinese debut; Zaniolo and Piotrowski reported back from injury and are available. Expected 3-4-2-1 with Okoye in goal and Ekkelenkamp and Davis in attack.
Allowing for this news: Venezia 42%, draw 25%, Udinese 32% (xG 1.59 – 1.36). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: rotowire.com, whoscored.com, goal.com, dazn.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Udinese
Udinese are rated 16 points above Venezia (1445 to 1429), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Venezia
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Venezia's chance of winning and takes the same from Udinese's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Venezia
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.4. Venezia score 1.1 a match against an average side (17th in Serie A); Udinese concede 1.4 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Venezia
Venezia LLLWL, lost 9 rating points; Udinese LDLLL, lost 41 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Venezia 41%, Udinese 31%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Udinese
Venezia won 1, drew 0 and lost 3 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
VeneziaUdineseVenezia
3/10 over 2.5
6 scored
20 conceded
08/23
08/28
09/06
09/11
09/19
10/12
10/17
10/25
10/28
11/01
Udinese
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
23 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/07
09/14
09/19
10/12
10/18
10/25
10/28
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 52%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Venezia | Draw | Udinese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia | 24%4.18 | 5%21.14 | 2%52.36 |
| Level | 16%6.45 | 14%6.92 | 11%8.73 |
| Udinese | 3%34.01 | 6%17.95 | 19%5.13 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Venezia wins3Udinese wins- L Udinese vs Venezia 3-2
- W Venezia vs Udinese 3-2
- L Venezia vs Udinese 1-2
- L Udinese vs Venezia 3-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Venezia's side.