Freiburg
Model pick
62%
Fair odds 1.60Bookmakers 63%
Union Berlin
16%
Fair odds 6.25Bookmakers 16%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Freiburg | Draw | Union Berlin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Elo model | 63% | 24% | 14% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Best price on offer | 1.53 | 4.60 | 6.25 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Freiburg
Freiburg are rated 121 points above Union Berlin (1564 to 1442), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Freiburg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Freiburg's chance of winning and takes the same from Union Berlin's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Freiburg
Expected goals 2.0 to 0.9. Freiburg score 1.5 a match against an average side (7th in Bundesliga); Union Berlin concede 1.4 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Freiburg WWLLL, barely moved; Union Berlin DDDWL, gained 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Union Berlin
Freiburg will have had 3 days' rest, Union Berlin 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Freiburg 63%, Union Berlin 16%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Union Berlin
Freiburg won 1, drew 4 and lost 5 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FreiburgUnion BerlinFreiburg
8/10 over 2.5
18 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Union Berlin
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
20 conceded
05/10
05/16
08/29
09/05
09/11
09/18
10/10
10/17
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 59%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Freiburg | Draw | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg | 36%2.76 | 3%31.25 | 1%— |
| Level | 22%4.48 | 12%8.05 | 6%17.92 |
| Union Berlin | 4%23.64 | 5%19.23 | 10%9.94 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Freiburg wins5Union Berlin wins- L Freiburg vs Union Berlin 0-1
- D Union Berlin vs Freiburg 0-0
- L Freiburg vs Union Berlin 1-2
- D Union Berlin vs Freiburg 0-0
- L Union Berlin vs Freiburg 2-1
- D Freiburg vs Union Berlin 0-0
- L Union Berlin vs Freiburg 4-2
- W Freiburg vs Union Berlin 4-1
- L Freiburg vs Union Berlin 1-4
- D Union Berlin vs Freiburg 0-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Freiburg's side.