Brighton
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.88
Univ. Craiova
21%
Fair odds 4.69
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Brighton | Draw | Univ. Craiova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 53% | 25% | 21% |
| Elo model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Brighton
Brighton are rated 81 points above Univ. Craiova (1646 to 1565), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Brighton
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Brighton's chance of winning and takes the same from Univ. Craiova's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Brighton
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.0. Brighton score 1.9 a match against an average side (3rd in Premier League); Univ. Craiova concede 0.9 (1st best defence in Romanian Liga 1).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Univ. Craiova
Brighton WWLDW, gained 11 rating points; Univ. Craiova WWWWW, gained 27 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
BrightonUniv. CraiovaBrighton
4/10 over 2.5
22 scored
3 conceded
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Univ. Craiova
5/10 over 2.5
26 scored
3 conceded
09/19
10/15
10/22
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Brighton | Draw | Univ. Craiova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 36%2.77 | 5%20.66 | 1%78.12 |
| Level | 16%6.41 | 15%6.54 | 8%12.38 |
| Univ. Craiova | 2%48.08 | 4%23.31 | 12%8.05 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.