CFR Cluj
19%
Fair odds 5.30Bookmakers 19%
Univ. Craiova
Model pick
57%
Fair odds 1.74Bookmakers 57%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| CFR Cluj | Draw | Univ. Craiova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| Elo model | 31% | 28% | 42% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 19% | 23% | 57% |
| Best price on offer | 5.30 | 4.00 | 1.62 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Univ. Craiova
Univ. Craiova are rated 104 points above CFR Cluj (1565 to 1462), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours CFR Cluj
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to CFR Cluj's chance of winning and takes the same from Univ. Craiova's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Univ. Craiova
Expected goals 1.0 to 1.8. CFR Cluj score 1.1 a match against an average side (5th in Romanian Liga 1); Univ. Craiova concede 0.9 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Univ. Craiova
CFR Cluj DDLWL, lost 16 rating points; Univ. Craiova WWWWW, gained 27 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours CFR Cluj
Univ. Craiova will have had 3 days' rest, CFR Cluj 8. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (CFR Cluj 19%, Univ. Craiova 57%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
CFR Cluj won 6, drew 7 and lost 7 of the last 20 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CFR ClujUniv. CraiovaCFR Cluj
5/10 over 2.5
13 scored
13 conceded
08/23
10/25
Univ. Craiova
5/10 over 2.5
26 scored
3 conceded
09/19
10/15
10/22
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 0-3
- 1-3
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | CFR Cluj | Draw | Univ. Craiova |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFR Cluj | 17%5.82 | 10%10.03 | 8%11.93 |
| Level | 2%49.75 | 12%8.40 | 25%3.97 |
| Univ. Craiova | 0%— | 1%— | 24%4.10 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6CFR Cluj wins7Univ. Craiova wins- D CFR Cluj vs Univ. Craiova 0-0
- L Univ. Craiova vs CFR Cluj 2-0
- D Univ. Craiova vs CFR Cluj 1-1
- L CFR Cluj vs Univ. Craiova 2-3
- D Univ. Craiova vs CFR Cluj 2-2
- W CFR Cluj vs Univ. Craiova 2-0
- W Univ. Craiova vs CFR Cluj 0-2
- L CFR Cluj vs Univ. Craiova 0-2
- W Univ. Craiova vs CFR Cluj 0-1
- L CFR Cluj vs Univ. Craiova 1-2
20 meetings in the data. Results shown from CFR Cluj's side.