Kyoto
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 2.00
Urawa Reds
25%
Fair odds 4.00
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kyoto | Draw | Urawa Reds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Elo model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Kyoto and Urawa Reds are rated almost level (1372 and 1368).
-
Home advantage Favours Kyoto
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Kyoto's chance of winning and takes the same from Urawa Reds's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Kyoto
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.1. Kyoto score 0.9 a match against an average side (9th in J1 League); Urawa Reds concede 1.9 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Kyoto WDDLL, lost 7 rating points; Urawa Reds LWWWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Urawa Reds
Kyoto won 1, drew 4 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
KyotoUrawa RedsKyoto
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
16 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/11
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
Urawa Reds
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
16 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kyoto | Draw | Urawa Reds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyoto | 30%3.31 | 4%24.45 | 1%85.47 |
| Level | 17%5.86 | 14%7.08 | 8%12.58 |
| Urawa Reds | 3%30.49 | 6%17.36 | 16%6.13 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Kyoto wins3Urawa Reds wins- L Urawa Reds vs Kyoto 2-1
- D Kyoto vs Urawa Reds 1-1
- D Kyoto vs Urawa Reds 0-0
- L Urawa Reds vs Kyoto 3-0
- D Urawa Reds vs Kyoto 0-0
- L Kyoto vs Urawa Reds 0-2
- D Urawa Reds vs Kyoto 2-2
- W Kyoto vs Urawa Reds 1-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Kyoto's side.