Vissel Kobe
Model pick
62%
Fair odds 1.60Bookmakers 44%
Urawa Reds
15%
Fair odds 6.65Bookmakers 29%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Vissel Kobe: 62% here, 44% with bookmakers; Urawa Reds: 15% here, 29% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Vissel Kobe | Draw | Urawa Reds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Elo model | 56% | 26% | 18% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Best price on offer | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe are rated 72 points above Urawa Reds (1441 to 1368), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Vissel Kobe
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Vissel Kobe's chance of winning and takes the same from Urawa Reds's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Vissel Kobe
Expected goals 1.9 to 0.8. Vissel Kobe score 1.0 a match against an average side (8th in J1 League); Urawa Reds concede 1.9 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Vissel Kobe WDLWL, barely moved; Urawa Reds LWWWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Urawa Reds
Bookmakers rate Urawa Reds higher than the model does: Vissel Kobe 44% against the model's 62%, Urawa Reds 29% against 15%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Vissel Kobe won 3, drew 3 and lost 3 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Vissel KobeUrawa RedsVissel Kobe
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
9 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/11
09/20
10/09
10/18
10/21
10/24
10/31
Urawa Reds
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
16 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 0-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Vissel Kobe | Draw | Urawa Reds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vissel Kobe | 34%2.95 | 2%66.67 | 0%— |
| Level | 24%4.25 | 13%7.71 | 3%38.17 |
| Urawa Reds | 5%18.21 | 7%13.77 | 13%7.93 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Vissel Kobe wins3Urawa Reds wins- L Urawa Reds vs Vissel Kobe 1-0
- D Vissel Kobe vs Urawa Reds 0-0
- W Vissel Kobe vs Urawa Reds 1-0
- D Urawa Reds vs Vissel Kobe 1-1
- W Urawa Reds vs Vissel Kobe 1-2
- L Vissel Kobe vs Urawa Reds 0-1
- L Vissel Kobe vs Urawa Reds 0-1
- D Urawa Reds vs Vissel Kobe 2-2
- W Vissel Kobe vs Urawa Reds 5-1
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Vissel Kobe's side.