Avispa Fukuoka
32%
Fair odds 3.16Bookmakers 44%
V-Varen Nagasaki
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.50Bookmakers 28%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Avispa Fukuoka: 32% here, 44% with bookmakers; V-Varen Nagasaki: 40% here, 28% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Avispa Fukuoka | Draw | V-Varen Nagasaki | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Elo model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Best price on offer | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours V-Varen Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki are rated 44 points above Avispa Fukuoka (1330 to 1286), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Avispa Fukuoka
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Avispa Fukuoka's chance of winning and takes the same from V-Varen Nagasaki's.
-
Attack against defence Favours V-Varen Nagasaki
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.3. Avispa Fukuoka score 0.6 a match against an average side (23rd in J1 League); V-Varen Nagasaki concede 2.0 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours V-Varen Nagasaki
Avispa Fukuoka LLLLW, lost 29 rating points; V-Varen Nagasaki LLWLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Avispa Fukuoka
Bookmakers rate Avispa Fukuoka higher than the model does: Avispa Fukuoka 44% against the model's 32%, V-Varen Nagasaki 28% against 40%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Avispa FukuokaV-Varen NagasakiAvispa Fukuoka
7/10 over 2.5
8 scored
20 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/21
10/24
11/01
V-Varen Nagasaki
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
15 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Avispa Fukuoka | Draw | V-Varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka | 25%4.00 | 7%13.44 | 3%32.57 |
| Level | 7%15.29 | 17%5.83 | 15%6.48 |
| V-Varen Nagasaki | 1%— | 3%36.50 | 22%4.52 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.