Machida
Model pick
73%
Fair odds 1.38
V-Varen Nagasaki
10%
Fair odds 9.96
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Machida | Draw | V-Varen Nagasaki | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| Elo model | 63% | 24% | 14% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Machida
Machida are rated 123 points above V-Varen Nagasaki (1453 to 1330), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Machida
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Machida's chance of winning and takes the same from V-Varen Nagasaki's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Machida
Expected goals 2.4 to 0.8. Machida score 1.2 a match against an average side (4th in J1 League); V-Varen Nagasaki concede 2.0 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Machida
Machida DDWWW, gained 25 rating points; V-Varen Nagasaki LLWLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
MachidaV-Varen NagasakiMachida
5/10 over 2.5
18 scored
8 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/21
10/24
11/01
V-Varen Nagasaki
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
15 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Machida | Draw | V-Varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Machida | 35%2.88 | 1%— | 0%— |
| Level | 29%3.43 | 9%11.59 | 1%74.63 |
| V-Varen Nagasaki | 9%10.89 | 7%13.76 | 9%11.21 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.