The model and the bookmakers disagree. Gnistan: 58% here, 46% with bookmakers; VPS: 19% here, 30% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Gnistan | Draw | VPS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Elo model | 51% | 27% | 23% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 46% | 25% | 30% |
| Best price on offer | 2.05 | 3.80 | 3.20 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Gnistan
Gnistan are rated 35 points above VPS (1357 to 1322), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Gnistan
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Gnistan's chance of winning and takes the same from VPS's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Gnistan
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.0. Gnistan score 0.9 a match against an average side (3rd in Veikkausliiga); VPS concede 2.0 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Gnistan LDLLL, lost 26 rating points; VPS LDLLW, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours VPS
Bookmakers rate VPS higher than the model does: Gnistan 46% against the model's 58%, VPS 30% against 19%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Gnistan won 2, drew 4 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GnistanVPS
09/08
10/29
09/19
10/18
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Gnistan | Draw | VPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gnistan | 32%3.09 | 3%38.02 | 1%— |
| Level | 21%4.70 | 13%7.71 | 5%20.58 |
| VPS | 5%20.66 | 7%15.02 | 14%7.22 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
- L VPS vs Gnistan 1-0
- D Gnistan vs VPS 1-1
- D VPS vs Gnistan 1-1
- D Gnistan vs VPS 0-0
- D VPS vs Gnistan 0-0
- W VPS vs Gnistan 0-1
- W Gnistan vs VPS 3-0
- L VPS vs Gnistan 3-2
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Gnistan's side.