Vallecano
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.90
Valencia
22%
Fair odds 4.55
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Vallecano | Draw | Valencia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 53% | 26% | 22% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Vallecano
Vallecano are rated 33 points above Valencia (1504 to 1470), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Vallecano
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Vallecano's chance of winning and takes the same from Valencia's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Vallecano
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.0. Vallecano score 1.3 a match against an average side (7th in La Liga); Valencia concede 1.3 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Vallecano WLDDW, barely moved; Valencia WLDDL, lost 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Vallecano won 2, drew 7 and lost 1 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
VallecanoValenciaVallecano
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
20 conceded
08/15
08/20
08/31
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/19
10/24
10/31
Valencia
5/10 over 2.5
8 scored
17 conceded
08/25
08/30
09/06
09/11
09/15
09/20
10/17
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Vallecano | Draw | Valencia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vallecano | 32%3.16 | 4%22.83 | 1%78.74 |
| Level | 19%5.37 | 15%6.54 | 9%11.56 |
| Valencia | 3%35.84 | 5%20.79 | 13%7.97 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Vallecano wins1Valencia wins- D Valencia vs Vallecano 1-1
- D Vallecano vs Valencia 1-1
- D Vallecano vs Valencia 1-1
- W Valencia vs Vallecano 0-1
- D Valencia vs Vallecano 0-0
- L Vallecano vs Valencia 0-1
- D Valencia vs Vallecano 1-1
- W Vallecano vs Valencia 2-1
- D Vallecano vs Valencia 1-1
- D Valencia vs Vallecano 1-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Vallecano's side.