Kristiansund
25%
Fair odds 4.05Bookmakers 32%
Valerenga
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.87Bookmakers 44%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Valerenga: 54% here, 44% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kristiansund | Draw | Valerenga | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 25% | 22% | 54% |
| Elo model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Best price on offer | 3.00 | 4.00 | 2.15 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Valerenga
Valerenga are rated 72 points above Kristiansund (1359 to 1287), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Kristiansund
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Kristiansund's chance of winning and takes the same from Valerenga's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Valerenga
Expected goals 1.4 to 2.1. Kristiansund score 0.8 a match against an average side (16th in Eliteserien); Valerenga concede 1.9 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Valerenga
Kristiansund WDLLL, lost 13 rating points; Valerenga WWWLD, gained 38 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Kristiansund
Bookmakers rate Kristiansund higher than the model does: Kristiansund 32% against the model's 25%, Valerenga 44% against 54%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Kristiansund won 3, drew 1 and lost 4 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
KristiansundValerengaKristiansund
8/10 over 2.5
16 scored
26 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/25
11/01
Valerenga
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
19 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/12
10/18
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-2
- 1-1
- 1-3
- 0-2
- 2-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 0-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kristiansund | Draw | Valerenga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kristiansund | 18%5.44 | 8%11.82 | 9%11.53 |
| Level | 6%16.86 | 10%9.87 | 23%4.34 |
| Valerenga | 1%— | 2%43.67 | 22%4.48 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Kristiansund wins4Valerenga wins- L Valerenga vs Kristiansund 3-1
- D Valerenga vs Kristiansund 3-3
- L Kristiansund vs Valerenga 0-2
- W Valerenga vs Kristiansund 0-2
- L Kristiansund vs Valerenga 0-2
- W Kristiansund vs Valerenga 3-2
- L Valerenga vs Kristiansund 3-0
- W Kristiansund vs Valerenga 2-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Kristiansund's side.