Celta
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.79
Valladolid
20%
Fair odds 5.08
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Celta | Draw | Valladolid | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Elo model | 69% | 21% | 10% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Celta
Celta are rated 168 points above Valladolid (1492 to 1324), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Celta
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Celta's chance of winning and takes the same from Valladolid's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Celta
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.0. Celta score 1.1 a match against an average side (15th in La Liga); Valladolid concede 1.6 (11th best defence in La Liga 2).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Celta LLDWW, barely moved; Valladolid WLLWD, gained 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Celta
Celta won 3, drew 0 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CeltaValladolidCelta
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
11 conceded
09/13
09/16
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Valladolid
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
16 conceded
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/04
10/12
10/18
10/23
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Celta | Draw | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta | 34%2.99 | 4%25.64 | 1%— |
| Level | 20%5.08 | 15%6.86 | 7%13.77 |
| Valladolid | 3%31.45 | 5%19.84 | 12%8.42 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Celta wins1Valladolid wins- W Valladolid vs Celta 0-1
- W Celta vs Valladolid 3-1
- W Celta vs Valladolid 3-0
- L Valladolid vs Celta 4-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Celta's side.