Sp Gijon
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.12Bookmakers 40%
Valladolid
27%
Fair odds 3.70Bookmakers 31%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sp Gijon | Draw | Valladolid | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Elo model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Best price on offer | 2.38 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Sp Gijon
Sp Gijon are rated 61 points above Valladolid (1384 to 1324), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sp Gijon
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sp Gijon's chance of winning and takes the same from Valladolid's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sp Gijon
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.2. Sp Gijon score 1.0 a match against an average side (9th in La Liga 2); Valladolid concede 1.6 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Sp Gijon WLWWW, gained 17 rating points; Valladolid WLLWD, gained 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Valladolid
Bookmakers rate Valladolid higher than the model does: Sp Gijon 40% against the model's 47%, Valladolid 31% against 27%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Valladolid
Sp Gijon won 1, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Sp GijonValladolidSp Gijon
4/10 over 2.5
12 scored
13 conceded
08/28
09/05
09/13
09/19
09/27
10/11
10/17
10/25
11/01
Valladolid
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
16 conceded
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/04
10/12
10/18
10/23
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 45%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sp Gijon | Draw | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Gijon | 28%3.60 | 4%22.22 | 1%68.03 |
| Level | 17%5.92 | 15%6.66 | 10%10.34 |
| Valladolid | 3%34.25 | 5%18.55 | 16%6.12 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Sp Gijon wins3Valladolid wins- D Sp Gijon vs Valladolid 2-2
- W Valladolid vs Sp Gijon 2-3
- D Sp Gijon vs Valladolid 1-1
- L Valladolid vs Sp Gijon 2-0
- L Valladolid vs Sp Gijon 1-0
- L Sp Gijon vs Valladolid 1-2
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sp Gijon's side.