Sociedad
Model pick
52%
Fair odds 1.92Bookmakers 56%
Vallecano
24%
Fair odds 4.12Bookmakers 21%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sociedad | Draw | Vallecano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Best price on offer | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.80 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sociedad
Sociedad are rated 14 points above Vallecano (1517 to 1504), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sociedad
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sociedad's chance of winning and takes the same from Vallecano's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sociedad
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.2. Sociedad score 1.5 a match against an average side (4th in La Liga); Vallecano concede 1.2 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Sociedad
Sociedad DLWWW, gained 25 rating points; Vallecano WLDDW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Vallecano
Sociedad will have had 3 days' rest, Vallecano 8. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Sociedad
Bookmakers rate Sociedad higher than the model does: Sociedad 56% against the model's 52%, Vallecano 21% against 24%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Sociedad won 3, drew 5 and lost 2 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SociedadVallecanoSociedad
8/10 over 2.5
23 scored
16 conceded
09/13
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Vallecano
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
20 conceded
08/15
08/20
08/31
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/19
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 60%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sociedad | Draw | Vallecano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sociedad | 29%3.40 | 4%24.57 | 1%71.94 |
| Level | 19%5.24 | 13%7.75 | 8%11.86 |
| Vallecano | 4%24.63 | 6%17.45 | 15%6.73 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Sociedad wins2Vallecano wins- D Vallecano vs Sociedad 3-3
- L Sociedad vs Vallecano 0-1
- D Vallecano vs Sociedad 2-2
- L Sociedad vs Vallecano 1-2
- D Sociedad vs Vallecano 0-0
- D Vallecano vs Sociedad 2-2
- W Sociedad vs Vallecano 2-1
- W Vallecano vs Sociedad 0-2
- D Vallecano vs Sociedad 1-1
- W Sociedad vs Vallecano 1-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sociedad's side.