CF Montreal
10%
Fair odds 9.86Bookmakers 21%
Vancouver Whitecaps
Model pick
73%
Fair odds 1.36Bookmakers 57%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. CF Montreal: 10% here, 21% with bookmakers; Vancouver Whitecaps: 73% here, 57% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| CF Montreal | Draw | Vancouver Whitecaps | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 10% | 16% | 73% |
| Elo model | 16% | 25% | 59% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 21% | 22% | 57% |
| Best price on offer | 4.80 | 4.33 | 1.67 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps are rated 224 points above CF Montreal (1458 to 1234), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours CF Montreal
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to CF Montreal's chance of winning and takes the same from Vancouver Whitecaps's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Vancouver Whitecaps
Expected goals 0.9 to 2.5. CF Montreal score 0.6 a match against an average side (30th in MLS); Vancouver Whitecaps concede 1.4 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Vancouver Whitecaps
CF Montreal DLLDL, lost 18 rating points; Vancouver Whitecaps WWLWD, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours CF Montreal
Bookmakers rate CF Montreal higher than the model does: CF Montreal 21% against the model's 10%, Vancouver Whitecaps 57% against 73%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
CF Montreal won 1, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CF MontrealVancouver WhitecapsCF Montreal
5/10 over 2.5
7 scored
19 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/24
10/28
10/31
Vancouver Whitecaps
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
13 conceded
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/07
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/25
10/29
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-2
- 1-2
- 0-3
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 1-1
- 0-4
- 1-4
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 3 |
| 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | CF Montreal | Draw | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal | 10%10.00 | 9%10.59 | 16%6.22 |
| Level | 0%— | 6%16.45 | 33%3.06 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 0%— | 0%— | 25%3.97 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1CF Montreal wins2Vancouver Whitecaps wins- L Vancouver Whitecaps vs CF Montreal 2-0
- D CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps 1-1
- L Vancouver Whitecaps vs CF Montreal 5-0
- W CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps 2-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from CF Montreal's side.