Chapecoense-SC
25%
Fair odds 3.99
Vasco
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.97
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Chapecoense-SC | Draw | Vasco | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Elo model | 28% | 28% | 44% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Vasco
Vasco are rated 121 points above Chapecoense-SC (1329 to 1207), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Chapecoense-SC
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Chapecoense-SC's chance of winning and takes the same from Vasco's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Vasco
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.8. Chapecoense-SC score 0.6 a match against an average side (23rd in Brasileirão); Vasco concede 1.9 (19th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Chapecoense-SC LWLLL, lost 14 rating points; Vasco LWLDW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Chapecoense-SCVascoChapecoense-SC
7/10 over 2.5
9 scored
20 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/08
10/12
10/17
10/24
10/28
Vasco
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
15 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/08
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/29
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 1-3
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Chapecoense-SC | Draw | Vasco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-SC | 20%5.03 | 9%11.31 | 7%14.75 |
| Level | 5%19.61 | 12%8.08 | 22%4.62 |
| Vasco | 0%— | 2%47.62 | 23%4.38 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Chapecoense-SC wins0Vasco wins- D Vasco vs Chapecoense-SC 1-1
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Chapecoense-SC's side.