GAIS
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.25
Vasteras SK
27%
Fair odds 3.75
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| GAIS | Draw | Vasteras SK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 44% | 29% | 27% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours GAIS
GAIS are rated 31 points above Vasteras SK (1403 to 1373), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours GAIS
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to GAIS's chance of winning and takes the same from Vasteras SK's.
-
Attack against defence Favours GAIS
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.0. GAIS score 0.9 a match against an average side (11th in Allsvenskan); Vasteras SK concede 1.6 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Vasteras SK
GAIS WWDLL, lost 12 rating points; Vasteras SK WWLWL, gained 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours GAIS
GAIS won 3, drew 0 and lost 0 of the last 3 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GAISVasteras SKGAIS
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
11 conceded
08/23
08/31
09/05
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/29
11/02
Vasteras SK
4/10 over 2.5
15 scored
6 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/18
10/23
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | GAIS | Draw | Vasteras SK |
|---|---|---|---|
| GAIS | 31%3.26 | 4%24.81 | 1%— |
| Level | 13%7.91 | 19%5.25 | 7%13.48 |
| Vasteras SK | 2%64.94 | 5%20.37 | 19%5.29 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3GAIS wins0Vasteras SK wins- W Vasteras SK vs GAIS 0-1
- W Vasteras SK vs GAIS 2-3
- W GAIS vs Vasteras SK 2-0
3 meetings in the data. Results shown from GAIS's side.