Orgryte
31%
Fair odds 3.26Bookmakers 32%
Vasteras SK
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.29Bookmakers 42%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Orgryte | Draw | Vasteras SK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 31% | 26% | 44% |
| Elo model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Best price on offer | 3.00 | 3.80 | 2.25 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Vasteras SK
Vasteras SK are rated 82 points above Orgryte (1373 to 1291), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Orgryte
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Orgryte's chance of winning and takes the same from Vasteras SK's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Vasteras SK
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.6. Orgryte score 0.8 a match against an average side (12th in Allsvenskan); Vasteras SK concede 1.6 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Orgryte LLDWL, barely moved; Vasteras SK WWLWL, gained 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Orgryte 32%, Vasteras SK 42%).
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
OrgryteVasteras SKOrgryte
7/10 over 2.5
12 scored
20 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/29
11/01
Vasteras SK
4/10 over 2.5
15 scored
6 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/18
10/23
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Orgryte | Draw | Vasteras SK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orgryte | 23%4.35 | 8%12.66 | 5%21.51 |
| Level | 7%13.66 | 14%7.16 | 18%5.61 |
| Vasteras SK | 1%— | 3%34.25 | 22%4.62 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Orgryte wins1Vasteras SK wins- L Vasteras SK vs Orgryte 2-0
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Orgryte's side.