Union de Santa Fe
32%
Fair odds 3.16Bookmakers 36%
Velez Sarsfield
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.46Bookmakers 34%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Union de Santa Fe | Draw | Velez Sarsfield | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 32% | 28% | 41% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 36% | 29% | 34% |
| Best price on offer | 2.70 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Velez Sarsfield
Velez Sarsfield are rated 68 points above Union de Santa Fe (1414 to 1347), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Union de Santa Fe
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Union de Santa Fe's chance of winning and takes the same from Velez Sarsfield's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Velez Sarsfield
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.4. Union de Santa Fe score 0.8 a match against an average side (11th in Liga Profesional); Velez Sarsfield concede 1.3 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Union de Santa Fe DWDLL, lost 6 rating points; Velez Sarsfield DWWLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Union de Santa Fe
Bookmakers rate Union de Santa Fe higher than the model does: Union de Santa Fe 36% against the model's 32%, Velez Sarsfield 34% against 41%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Union de Santa Fe won 2, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Union de Santa FeVelez SarsfieldUnion de Santa Fe
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
16 conceded
08/21
08/28
09/08
09/13
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/20
10/26
11/01
Velez Sarsfield
5/10 over 2.5
18 scored
12 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/11
09/21
10/05
10/12
10/18
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Union de Santa Fe | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union de Santa Fe | 25%4.06 | 8%13.28 | 3%29.76 |
| Level | 7%14.53 | 16%6.11 | 16%6.30 |
| Velez Sarsfield | 1%— | 3%35.21 | 22%4.56 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Union de Santa Fe wins1Velez Sarsfield wins- D Velez Sarsfield vs Union de Santa Fe 2-2
- W Union de Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield 1-0
- D Velez Sarsfield vs Union de Santa Fe 0-0
- W Union de Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield 2-1
- L Velez Sarsfield vs Union de Santa Fe 4-0
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Union de Santa Fe's side.