Juventus
Model pick
75%
Fair odds 1.33
Venezia
9%
Fair odds 11.16
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Juventus | Draw | Venezia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| Elo model | 70% | 21% | 9% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Juventus
Juventus are rated 177 points above Venezia (1606 to 1429), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Juventus
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Juventus's chance of winning and takes the same from Venezia's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Juventus
Expected goals 2.5 to 0.8. Juventus score 1.6 a match against an average side (4th in Serie A); Venezia concede 1.5 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Juventus
Juventus WWLWD, gained 7 rating points; Venezia LLLWL, lost 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Juventus
Juventus won 2, drew 2 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
JuventusVeneziaJuventus
5/10 over 2.5
18 scored
10 conceded
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/28
11/01
11/05
Venezia
3/10 over 2.5
6 scored
20 conceded
08/23
08/28
09/06
09/11
09/19
10/12
10/17
10/25
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 1-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Juventus | Draw | Venezia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus | 48%2.10 | 3%38.31 | 1%— |
| Level | 24%4.21 | 9%10.94 | 4%28.49 |
| Venezia | 4%24.39 | 4%27.70 | 5%19.23 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Juventus wins0Venezia wins- W Venezia vs Juventus 2-3
- D Juventus vs Venezia 2-2
- W Juventus vs Venezia 2-1
- D Venezia vs Juventus 1-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Juventus's side.