Mito
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.35
Verdy
29%
Fair odds 3.41
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Mito | Draw | Verdy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Mito
Mito are rated 18 points above Verdy (1309 to 1291), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Mito
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Mito's chance of winning and takes the same from Verdy's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Mito
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.1. Mito score 0.7 a match against an average side (17th in J1 League); Verdy concede 2.0 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Verdy
Mito LLLLL, lost 49 rating points; Verdy WWDLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
MitoVerdyMito
4/10 over 2.5
7 scored
21 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
Verdy
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
18 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Mito | Draw | Verdy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mito | 29%3.41 | 5%20.28 | 1%76.92 |
| Level | 12%8.16 | 17%5.74 | 9%10.58 |
| Verdy | 2%63.29 | 5%21.32 | 19%5.24 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.