Shimizu S-Pulse
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.51Bookmakers 40%
Verdy
31%
Fair odds 3.23Bookmakers 31%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Shimizu S-Pulse | Draw | Verdy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 40% | 30% | 31% |
| Best price on offer | 2.40 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Neutral
Shimizu S-Pulse and Verdy are rated almost level (1284 and 1291).
-
Home advantage Favours Shimizu S-Pulse
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Shimizu S-Pulse's chance of winning and takes the same from Verdy's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Shimizu S-Pulse
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.1. Shimizu S-Pulse score 0.6 a match against an average side (20th in J1 League); Verdy concede 2.0 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Verdy
Shimizu S-Pulse LLLDW, lost 18 rating points; Verdy WWDLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Shimizu S-Pulse 40%, Verdy 31%).
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Shimizu S-PulseVerdyShimizu S-Pulse
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
20 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
Verdy
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
18 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Shimizu S-Pulse | Draw | Verdy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-Pulse | 29%3.45 | 5%19.16 | 1%75.76 |
| Level | 10%9.75 | 19%5.29 | 10%10.06 |
| Verdy | 1%92.59 | 4%24.33 | 20%4.96 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Shimizu S-Pulse wins0Verdy wins- W Shimizu S-Pulse vs Verdy 1-0
- W Verdy vs Shimizu S-Pulse 0-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Shimizu S-Pulse's side.