Mantova
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.54Bookmakers 38%
Verona
34%
Fair odds 2.92Bookmakers 35%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Mantova | Draw | Verona | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 39% | 26% | 34% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 31% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 38% | 28% | 35% |
| Best price on offer | 2.60 | 3.45 | 2.75 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Verona
Verona are rated 26 points above Mantova (1392 to 1366), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Mantova
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Mantova's chance of winning and takes the same from Verona's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.4. Mantova score 1.1 a match against an average side (4th in Serie B); Verona concede 1.3 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Mantova DLWLW, barely moved; Verona WWDDL, gained 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Mantova 38%, Verona 35%).
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MantovaVeronaMantova
4/10 over 2.5
15 scored
11 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/31
Verona
7/10 over 2.5
19 scored
13 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/11
09/20
10/11
10/16
10/25
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 52%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Mantova | Draw | Verona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mantova | 22%4.57 | 5%21.65 | 2%52.91 |
| Level | 15%6.57 | 15%6.67 | 12%8.25 |
| Verona | 3%35.34 | 6%17.67 | 21%4.81 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.