Virtus Entella
33%
Fair odds 3.00
Verona
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.57
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Virtus Entella | Draw | Verona | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Elo model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Verona
Verona are rated 71 points above Virtus Entella (1392 to 1320), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Virtus Entella
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Virtus Entella's chance of winning and takes the same from Verona's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.3. Virtus Entella score 0.9 a match against an average side (13th in Serie B); Verona concede 1.3 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Verona
Virtus Entella LDLWD, lost 12 rating points; Verona WWDDL, gained 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Virtus EntellaVeronaVirtus Entella
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
12 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/11
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/31
Verona
7/10 over 2.5
19 scored
13 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/11
09/20
10/11
10/16
10/25
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Virtus Entella | Draw | Verona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Entella | 18%5.47 | 4%22.22 | 2%54.95 |
| Level | 13%7.44 | 17%6.00 | 14%7.35 |
| Verona | 2%45.45 | 6%18.15 | 24%4.17 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.