Odense
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.72Bookmakers 34%
Viborg
37%
Fair odds 2.72Bookmakers 40%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Odense | Draw | Viborg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Elo model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 34% | 25% | 40% |
| Best price on offer | 2.75 | 3.80 | 2.35 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Viborg
Viborg are rated 53 points above Odense (1404 to 1351), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Odense
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Odense's chance of winning and takes the same from Viborg's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.4. Odense score 0.9 a match against an average side (8th in Danish Superliga); Viborg concede 1.6 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Odense WDWDD, gained 31 rating points; Viborg WLLWW, gained 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Viborg
Bookmakers rate Viborg higher than the model does: Odense 34% against the model's 37%, Viborg 40% against 37%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Viborg
Odense won 3, drew 4 and lost 6 of the last 13 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
OdenseViborgOdense
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
15 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/18
10/26
11/01
Viborg
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
11 conceded
08/14
08/23
08/28
09/04
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/19
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Odense | Draw | Viborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odense | 26%3.87 | 7%15.02 | 3%32.89 |
| Level | 10%9.85 | 15%6.73 | 14%7.08 |
| Viborg | 1%75.19 | 4%25.84 | 20%4.96 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Odense wins6Viborg wins- L Viborg vs Odense 1-0
- W Viborg vs Odense 1-2
- W Odense vs Viborg 3-1
- L Viborg vs Odense 2-1
- L Odense vs Viborg 1-3
- W Viborg vs Odense 1-2
- L Odense vs Viborg 1-2
- D Viborg vs Odense 0-0
- L Odense vs Viborg 1-2
- D Odense vs Viborg 1-1
13 meetings in the data. Results shown from Odense's side.