Ascoli
Model pick
58%
Fair odds 1.72
Vicenza
18%
Fair odds 5.53
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Ascoli | Draw | Vicenza | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Elo model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Ascoli
Ascoli are rated 83 points above Vicenza (1382 to 1299), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Ascoli
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Ascoli's chance of winning and takes the same from Vicenza's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Ascoli
Expected goals 1.8 to 0.9. Ascoli score 0.9 a match against an average side (9th in Serie B); Vicenza concede 1.9 (22nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Ascoli
Ascoli DWWDD, gained 28 rating points; Vicenza LLWDL, lost 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
AscoliVicenzaAscoli
3/10 over 2.5
16 scored
6 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/27
11/01
Vicenza
8/10 over 2.5
13 scored
20 conceded
08/21
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/23
10/27
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Ascoli | Draw | Vicenza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli | 35%2.89 | 4%26.53 | 1%— |
| Level | 21%4.84 | 14%6.95 | 7%14.49 |
| Vicenza | 3%30.86 | 5%20.66 | 11%9.35 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Ascoli wins1Vicenza wins- L Vicenza vs Ascoli 2-0
- W Ascoli vs Vicenza 2-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Ascoli's side.