Ath Madrid
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.77
Viking
23%
Fair odds 4.40
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Ath Madrid | Draw | Viking | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 56% | 21% | 23% |
| Elo model | 56% | 26% | 19% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid are rated 72 points above Viking (1632 to 1561), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Ath Madrid
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Ath Madrid's chance of winning and takes the same from Viking's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Ath Madrid
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.4. Ath Madrid score 1.6 a match against an average side (3rd in La Liga); Viking concede 1.4 (2nd best defence in Eliteserien).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Ath Madrid LWWDW, gained 6 rating points; Viking WLWLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Ath MadridVikingAth Madrid
4/10 over 2.5
18 scored
5 conceded
09/13
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Viking
9/10 over 2.5
30 scored
17 conceded
09/09
09/13
09/20
10/09
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/30
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 2-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Ath Madrid | Draw | Viking |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ath Madrid | 33%3.06 | 5%21.10 | 2%43.86 |
| Level | 20%5.01 | 11%9.25 | 9%10.55 |
| Viking | 4%23.64 | 5%22.12 | 11%8.83 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.